Market Insights

Nasdaq, Gold, US Dollar Analysis and Charts

  • Nasdaq 100 eyes 20,000 as buyers remain in control.
  • Gold slips as risk sentiment turns positive.
  • US dollar little changed, markets eye SNB and BoE this week.

The technology sector in the United States continues its upward momentum, propelled by the persistent demand for the Mag 7 stocks. The Nasdaq 100 index is nearing the significant 20,000 level. The top three corporations in the Nasdaq – Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple – collectively account for nearly 26% of the index's total market capitalization. This figure underscores the substantial concentration risk posed by these Mag 7 stocks within the index.

Nasdaq Daily Price Chart

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The United States dollar is maintaining a steady course in early trading, with a scarcity of high-impact data or events this week to provide directional guidance. US Treasury yields persist at or slightly above their recent multi-week lows, while expectations for US interest rate cuts remain largely unchanged. The market currently anticipates the first reduction in November, although a move at the September meeting would not come as a surprise. Furthermore, an additional rate cut is expected by the end of the year.

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The US dollar index is trading around 105.60 and is consolidating its recent move higher. The greenback is back above all three simple moving averages, a bullish signal, but looks overbought using the CCI indicator.

USD Daily Price Chart

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Gold is consolidating its recent gains and remains within a multi-week range. The 20- and 50-day simple moving averages are currently acting as short-term resistance, and these need to be broken and opened above to keep the precious metal moving higher. Support just below $2,280/oz. should hold in the short term.

Gold Respecting a Recent Trading Range but Support Needs to Hold Firm

Gold Daily Price Chart

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Retail trader data shows 56.86% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.32 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.99% higher than yesterday and 22.10% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.30% higher than yesterday and 33.70% higher than last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias.

Gold Mixed
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 11% -8% 3%
Weekly -18% 13% -8%

Charts via TradingView

For all economic data releases and events see the WH Alliance

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