Key Takeaways
Housing turnover is limited . Mortgage rates are elevated . Tariffs could add pressure to the housing market. But business will pick up at Home Depot ( HD ), Melius Research analysts said, because homeowners can't put off updating their houses forever.
The research team believes Americans will soon move forward with stalled relocation and renovation plans, accepting mortgage and inflation rates as the new normal. That will result in a flurry of construction projects that benefit home improvement businesses like Home Depot, Melius Research analysts wrote Tuesday.
The analysts set a $455 price target on the stock, a bit above the average target of analysts tracked by Visible Alpha and nearly 16% above its closing price Tuesday.
“Homeowners cannot continue to halt their investments in existing homes given the wear and tear over the years or halt their decisions to upgrade, downgrade, or change their existing footprint,” Melius Research said. “We believe the stalemate will come to a head.”
A major renovation freeze may be starting to thaw, according to data Home Depot shared on an earning conference call Tuesday morning. Transactions valued at $1,000 or more grew 0.9% year-over-year in the final quarter of 2024, executive vice president of merchandising, Billy Bastek said. Such “big ticket” transactions were down 6.8% year-over-year in the third quarter.
Slightly more Americans are using their home's equity to finance projects, CEO Ted Decker said, adding that he's unsure how much that will change in 2025.
“They’ll eventually tap that equity and do the larger remodeling projects,” Decker said, according to a transcript made available by AlphaSense. “We’re just not sure that turn comes in 2025 at a dramatically accelerated pace.”
Home Depot shares finished the day nearly 3% higher after the company
reported its latest results
.
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