In a must-read new report, my friends at Goehring & Rozencwajg write, “A major shift in the global monetary system may be imminent. History offers a clear precedent: every past commodity bull market has been set in motion by a similar regime change.”
The "Mar-a-Lago Accord
That “major shift in the global monetary system” could come in the form of a “Mar-a-Lago Accord.”
As Torsten Slok explains, “the idea is that the US provides the world with security, and in return, the rest of the world helps push
US Dollar Index Futures
down in order to grow the US manufacturing sector.”
This may sound rather far-fetched at first but, as Ray Dalio notes, “Just as we are seeing political and geopolitical shifts that seem unimaginable to most people, if you just look at history, you will see these things repeating over and over again.”
Commodities Take the Lead
Already, markets may be starting to reflect these dynamics.
“Commodities are stealing the show, outperforming both stocks and bonds through various risk/rate/dollar configurations over the past quarter,” notes TS Lombard (via Daily Chartbook)
.
And stock prices are echoing another time when it paid to favor real assets over financial ones.
“Yesterday [3/10] was the first time since 2002 that the S&P 500 Index dropped over 2.5% with fewer than 400 members falling. The other times were when the dot-com bubble burst in 2000-2002,” writes Cameron Crise.
