Investing.com -- Barclays analysts highlighted in a note this week that the irregular immigrant population in the U.S. reached approximately 17 million in 2024, its highest level since 2010. However, the bank’s analysts state they are “the backbone of key sectors.”
Barclays said these workers account for just 7% of the total workforce, they make up between 20-30% of key industries such as crop production and construction.
The bank estimates that 8.4 million new irregular immigrants entered the U.S. between 2021 and 2024, adding 5.2 million workers to the economy, with the data based on a combination of American Community Survey (ACS) figures and Barclays’ own immigration tracker.
The report highlights the sectors most reliant on irregular immigrant labor, stating that “while irregular immigrants make up only 7% of the US workforce, our analysis shows that they play a significant role in specific sectors.”
These reportedly include crop production (22-31%), private households (22-30%), construction (15-21%), apparel manufacturing (13-19%), and food manufacturing (12-17%).
Additionally, some occupations—such as graders, roofers, and packers— are said to see nearly 50% of their workforce composed of irregular immigrants.
Barclays also notes a shift in enforcement policies, reporting that "daily interior arrests by ICE averaged 650 during the first month of the Trump administration," a figure 2.5 to 3 times higher than during the Biden administration.
At the same time, "net irregular immigration, in particular humanitarian entries, already slowed to 74,000 in December 2024 from 310,000 in December 2023," with expectations that new executive measures "will bring the flow down to zero."
“Combined, these factors could significantly reduce the supply of irregular workers,” argues Barclays.
They concluded: “Since irregular immigrants, authorized immigrants and US-born workers complement (rather than substitute for) each other in the workplace, this reduction could significantly challenge sectors that have benefited from the influx of irregular immigrants, leading to higher labor costs and increased inflationary pressures.”