Investing.com -- Waymo, Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL )'s self-driving unit, is on track to reach 1 billion miles by 2030, up from an estimated 39 million in 2024, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) said in a note. The brokerage predicts Waymo will need around 23,000 vehicles by then, a sharp increase from the current fleet of 1,000, to support growing trip demand.
Waymo's recent announcement of Miami as its sixth city adds to its footprint, which includes Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta. Morgan Stanley's updated model factors in Waymo entering 3-4 new cities annually from 2026 to 2030.
While Waymo could generate $2.5 billion in revenue by 2030, it would still account for just 2% of U.S. rideshare miles, highlighting both the opportunity and challenges in scaling operations.
“We would expect at some point Waymo will begin pricing below traditional rideshare on a per mile basis given its lower variable cost, which would lead to more miles driven but also require more vehicles to support the volume,” analyst at Morgan Stanley said.