Investing.com -- BTIG downgraded Match Group Inc (NASDAQ: MTCH ) to "Neutral" from "Buy" given a lack of clarity on Tinder's turnaround and a weak growth outlook.
The brokerage revised its estimates following Match's downbeat three-year investor day forecast. Tinder's revenue is expected to remain under pressure, with no growth projected until 2027. Consolidated revenue growth for 2026-2027 is forecast at a modest 5%.
BTIG noted the potential in the online dating market, given its large singles population and low app penetration, but expressed skepticism about Tinder's product initiatives driving meaningful growth.
“We had been hanging on in the hope that Tinder payer count was near a bottom with a return to growth around the corner as it worked through a product refresh cycle. That hasn't been the case,” analyst wrote.
Match's valuation is also a concern. At 10x EBITDA with declining revenue, the multiple is seen as "full," limiting upside potential. BTIG derived a fair value range for Match of $20-$40 but refrained from setting a price target for its Neutral rating.
The brokerage pointed to the need for significant topline growth, far beyond Match's projections, to justify a bullish stance.