Bitcoin has entered a bear market, with its price dropping over 20% from its all-time high. Market analyst Timothy Peterson expects the downturn to last 90 days, arguing that this decline is weaker than most past bear markets. He noted that out of the 10 previous downturns, only four—2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024—have been worse in terms of duration. Peterson does not see BTC sinking far below $50,000 but says a slide in the next 30 days could be followed by a 20-40% rally after April 15. He believes this could trigger renewed buying interest and push Bitcoin higher.
Investor sentiment has been affected by global trade war concerns following tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and retaliatory measures from multiple trading partners. The uncertainty has led to a decline in speculative investments. The Glassnode Hot Supply metric , which tracks BTC held for a week or less, has fallen from 5.9% in November 2024 to 2.3% by March 20, signaling reduced short-term trading activity. A CryptoQuant report also suggests that most retail investors are already in the market, countering expectations that a surge of new traders would drive prices up.
Ether has also struggled, losing over 51% in three months since peaking above $4,100 on December 16, 2024. Analysts say ETH must reclaim the $2,200 range to gain upward momentum. “If price can generate a strong enough reaction here, then #ETH will be able to reclaim the $2,196-$3,900 Macro Range (black),” wrote crypto analyst Rekt Capital in a March 19 X post. Despite positive regulatory developments, such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dropping its lawsuit against Ripple, ETH has yet to see significant gains.
Open interest in Ether futures reached an all-time high on March 21, raising speculation that large investors are positioning for a move above $2,400. According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, large ETH holders in the 10K-100K range have been increasing their holdings while others are dumping. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses with at least $100,000 worth of ETH rose from 70,000 on March 10 to over 75,000 by March 22. In contrast, there were over 146,000 such wallets in December when ETH was above $4,000.
Market uncertainty remains high, with some analysts expecting economic pressures to last until at least April 2025. Despite short-term volatility, long-term projections remain optimistic. VanEck has predicted a $6,000 cycle top for ETH and a $180,000 peak for BTC in 2025.